Islamabad, June 19, 2026 (Agencies) — Pakistan sits atop the world’s fifth-largest copper and gold reserves, yet the minerals sector contributes a mere fraction of the country’s GDP — a paradox that experts say can only be resolved through sweeping regulatory reform, value-added manufacturing, and sustained policy stability.
Pakistan’s mineral wealth is estimated at $8 trillion, spread across 600,000 square kilometres and comprising 92 identified minerals, of which 52 are commercially extracted. Despite this vast underground wealth, the sector currently contributes around 3.2 percent to GDP, while Pakistani mineral exports account for just 0.1 percent of the global total — a gap that highlights both the scale of the challenge and the scope of the opportunity.
“With vast untapped wealth, including the world’s fifth-largest copper and gold reserves — such as the Reko Diq Project — and emerging critical minerals, this sector is estimated to be worth up to $8 trillion,” said Dr. Shahid Rashid, former unit head at Engro Corporation and geopolitical observer.
Reko Diq, located in the remote Chaghi district of southwestern Balochistan, represents one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits, estimated to contain 25.6 billion pounds of copper and 13.3 million ounces of gold in inferred and indicated resources. The project, revived by Canada’s Barrick Gold, is forecast to start producing copper and gold by 2028, and is expected to generate a cash flow of $74 billion over its lifetime. Barrick Gold holds a 50 percent stake in the project, while Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals will acquire a 15 percent stake, with potential investment of $1 billion.
International interest in the project has accelerated sharply. Tokyo has expressed interest in investing in the multi-billion-dollar mine, weeks after the Asian Development Bank approved a $410 million financing package for the project. Momentum accelerated further in February when the United States approved $1.3 billion in financing for Reko Diq during the 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, as part of Project Vault — a $10 billion US initiative aimed at reengineering global critical mineral supply chains.
To translate this geological promise into genuine economic transformation, Dr. Rashid identified several priorities. Chief among them is the role of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), which acts as a “single window” to remove bureaucratic hurdles and attract foreign direct investment into the sector. The SIFC, a civil-military body, has been empowered through the Mineral Investment Facilitation Authority to centralise control over provincial mineral deposits and override provincial departments — though this concentration of authority has itself raised governance concerns given the council’s limited transparency.
Dr. Rashid also emphasised the importance of shifting Pakistan’s approach from raw ore exports toward in-country refining and manufacturing in order to capture greater value along the supply chain. This shift is already taking shape, with a $500 million investment deal between the Frontier Works Organization — Pakistan’s largest miner of critical minerals — and Missouri-based US Strategic Metals that includes setting up a polymetallic refinery in Pakistan. Pakistan has also developed a copper smelter in Gwadar with a processing capacity of 50,000 to 80,000 tonnes per year, alongside plans to build a rail network connecting Gwadar and Chagai.
Expanding international partnerships is another critical pillar, with CPEC’s role in copper, gold and rare earth elements continuing to grow alongside deepening engagement from the Gulf, East Asia and Europe. Initiatives such as the Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum and the National Mineral Harmonisation Framework, alongside growing international engagement under CPEC and interest from Saudi Arabia, are drawing global attention to the sector.
Improving policy predictability, reducing bureaucratic friction, facilitating currency repatriation, and ensuring stability in resource-rich but volatile regions such as Balochistan remain the most significant barriers to unlocking the sector’s full potential. Many of Pakistan’s mineral deposits lie in sensitive and restive regions — Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and parts of Sindh — where local resistance, political grievances and militant activity can disrupt operations, with recent escalations in Balochistan underscoring the fragility of the environment in which projects like Reko Diq must operate.
Independent analysts caution that the headline valuations require careful interpretation. The basis for the larger multi-trillion-dollar estimates remains opaque in official reporting, likely representing highly optimistic, aggregated potential in-ground values of all known or suspected mineral occurrences across the country, rather than proven, economically recoverable reserves under current conditions — a gap compounded by historical underinvestment in comprehensive, modern geological surveying.
Even so, with global demand for critical minerals rising sharply amid the energy transition and the broader race for supply chain security, Pakistan’s geological endowment places it in a position few resource-rich nations can claim. As Dr. Rashid notes, the decisive factor will not be the scale of what lies underground, but whether Islamabad can deliver the regulatory frameworks, investment climate and long-term strategic planning needed to finally convert geological promise into economic reality.