- By: John Abbas Abro
- Shikarpur, Sindh.
Today, the world is truly amazed by the tremendous rise of China over past few decades. It has become the world’s largest manufacturer, producing more goods than United States, Japan and Germany. China leads the world in high-speed rail and infrastructure development with projects such as Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway and Danyang-Kunshan Grad Bridge showcasing its engineering dominance. It has also invested in Africa, Europe and Latin America through its Belt and Red Initiative (BRI) it controls major ports such as Gwadar, Hambantota and Piraeus, operates strategic railways like
The China-Europe express and Addis Ababa-Djibouti line, and manages key energy pipelines including China-Myanmar and power of Siberia routes extending its influence across continents. China has now world’s largest navy by number of ships having 1000 total ships when including support, patrol craft and auxiliaries. It is also ahead in nuclear weapons, missiles, drones, cyber warfare and hypersonic technology with cyber operations such as APT10’s ‘Cloud Hoper’ and Microsoft Exchange attacks demonstrating China’s growing digital warfare capabilities. It leads in drone technology with advanced models such as the Wing Loong series CH-7 stealth drone, WZ-8 hypersonic drone and GJ-11 ‘Sharp Sword’ giving it superior surveillance and strike capabilities. Although it was banned from NASA’s program, yet it developed its own space system and is independent in launching satellites and lunar missions.
As realism suggests, “The Security Dilemma” China’s rapid economic, military and technological growth has triggered concerns in major powers particularly the United States and its allies. Similarly, as explained by “Thucydides Trap” war becomes almost unavoidable when a new power rises because existing power fears losing control. In current context, China’s economic, military and geopolitical influence has raised concerns for U.S, the current global hegemon. So, it’s a point of discussion for many scholars of International Relations and Political Science like Graham Allison, John Mearsheimer and Henry Kissinger who question whether the world is truly heading to a third world war? Because during this competition of U.S and China we have seen several theories of IR being reflected like “Balance of Power”, where weak nations make alliances to balance the power of stronger one. Today we see countries like Russia, China, India and others making alliances to balance the power of stronger U.S.
?We witness that today the world is more “Liberal and Experienced” after the massive destructions of 2 world wars in past century. Moreover, the world today is largely “Democratic and Globalized”. And as Liberalism suggests that the democracies focus on “Absolute gains” rather than relative gains unlike Realism. As the world is Globalized, so if any war begins the citizens across the globe will have to bear the cost and this is of course unfavorable for the Democratic Governments as they are interconnected through trade, technology and travel. Therefore, from liberal perspective, tensions between great powers persist but the likelihood of third world war is low.
?But still we have seen certain signs of tensions between China and U.S that could lead to start of a world war. Both powers are competing over influence on key strategic check points like Panama Canal, Strait of Malacca and Taiwan Strait etc. The U.S now is facing growing rivalry all around the world not only for its policies but also because of its actions in past such as Vietnam war, invasion of Iraq and atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, among others. China has emerged as primary global rival of U.S. It is direct competitor of U.S in trade, space exploration advanced technologies, 5G, and Artificial Intelligence particularly in the production of microchips, where it remains dependent on U.S. It aims to replace U.S as dominant Global power. However, U.S also faces challenges from other global rivals too like Russia, Iran, North-Korea, Cuba which share ideological differences with U.S and seek to reduce its dominance. Apart from these state rivals, U.S deals with some non-state actors too such as ISIS, Al-Qaida and Taliban and similar entities who also hold ideological opposition towards U.S and have inflicted damage on U.S interest a lot in past. U.S is also facing economic competitors like EU in trade and technology, India rising power with independent policy and BRICS alliance who seek to replace dollar dominance.
?Thus there is a possibility that either the United States may initiate conflict to maintain dominance or rising power may attempt to challenge and replace it. Given liberal and democratic nature of both states and the fact that they both are nuclear states, any potential war is to be limited in scope and primarily cold or strategic in nature, rather than full-scale conventional conflict.
?As China gets stronger the possibility of war gets higher. China still depends on U.S, Taiwan, South-Korea and Dutch technology. Its biggest weakness is U.S microchips. China’s planes rely on western made engines and systems. It lacks global software ecosystem. Its currency Yuan is not yet global reserve currency, and it remains dependent on English Language for international business diplomacy and trade.
?It may still take a long time for China to achieve full independence in trade but the most important question remains unresolved. Unlike the U.S and Soviet rivalry, which had a clear base of capitalism and communism, the potential conflict between U.S and China lacks a defining base. Therefore, the ideology that might one day drive the United States and China into conflict remains undefined and uncertain.