- Baltic Exchange benchmark surges after US destroys five Iranian-linked tankers and Tehran retaliates with strikes on a Jordan base, deepening a six-month war that has driven oil above $100 a barrel
DUBAI 12 SEPTEMBER 2026 (Agencies) – Supertanker rates on the Baltic Exchange’s benchmark Middle East-to-China shipping route have surged to 800,000 dollars a day, after US forces destroyed five Iranian-linked tankers and Tehran threatened further escalation, with prospects for near-term stabilisation looking limited.
The freight surge signals that crude oil and refined products continue to flow out of the Gulf region, but at sharply rising cost. According to Bloomberg, US Gulf-to-Asia shipments aboard very large crude carriers now average about 29.5 million dollars per voyage, equivalent to roughly 15 dollars a barrel before any additional war-risk charges or unexpected delays. Kpler expects VLCC earnings to remain above 100,000 dollars a day into early next year, more than double the historical norm of around 45,000 dollars, while Morgan Stanley analysts say two-year leasing rates could climb a further 20 to 30 percent. Manu Sehgal, vice president of strategy and feedstock supply at Indian refiner HPCL-Mittal Energy, told Bloomberg that crude volume remains available, but transit and shipping are what is being hampered.
A fleet of tankers conducting ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman is helping keep barrels flowing through the Hormuz chokepoint despite the risk. Vitol’s chief executive estimated earlier this week that roughly 10 million barrels a day were crossing the waterway, while Goldman Sachs analysts put the figure closer to 15 million. The Baltic Exchange’s newer Gulf of Oman-to-East Asia benchmark has surged 85 percent since its inception, reaching almost 386,000 dollars a day this week. The rising cost of moving crude adds a further layer of inflationary pressure for global central banks, with freight costs able to filter through to gasoline, diesel and, ultimately, consumer goods.
The rate surge follows a sharp escalation in the Gulf on September 9, when US Central Command said it had destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer on two separate occasions. Both US warships evaded the attacks and no American personnel were harmed, CENTCOM said. The vessels destroyed, the M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1 and M/T Riesco in the Gulf of Oman, and the M/T Derya near Kharg Island, were described by CENTCOM as part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network funding the IRGC and its regional proxies; crews were told to abandon ship before the strikes. Iran responded by claiming it had attacked ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz and by firing missiles at US forces stationed at the Al-Azraq base in Jordan. Jordan’s military said its air defences intercepted 18 of 20 incoming ballistic missiles, with the remaining two landing in unpopulated areas and no casualties reported.
The confrontation forms part of a broader US-Israeli military campaign against Iran that Trump announced on February 28, involving joint strikes on military, government and infrastructure sites. Negotiations aimed at a war-ending deal that began in June have not produced a lasting resolution, and the two sides have continued to exchange strikes since, with the Strait of Hormuz emerging as the central flashpoint. Iran has moved to restrict passage through the strait, while the US has been enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has said Tehran plans to declare an exclusion zone outside the strait targeting vessels it believes are attempting unauthorised transit.
Adding to the pressure on regional shipping, Iran-backed Houthi forces have launched a campaign to gain control of the Bab el-Mandab Strait, an increasingly important route for Saudi oil exports now that flows through Hormuz have slowed. Fighting linked to that campaign has killed more than 500 people, mostly combatants, according to an AFP tally drawn from sources on both sides. Brent crude was trading at a seven-week high following the September 5 strikes on Iranian tankers, and the broader hostilities pushed oil prices above 100 dollars a barrel in early trading on September 9. The United States has separately intensified economic pressure on Iran, imposing new sanctions this week on more than two dozen airlines and cargo service providers as part of a campaign the administration has called Operation Economic Outcast, aimed at severing Iran’s financial lifelines.