- By: Syed Azhar Shah
The absence of dams in Pakistan would render its landscape, economy, and society unrecognizable and significantly vulnerable.
- Catastrophic Energy Deficit. Pakistan is currently contending with an energy crisis. The removal of dams would exacerbate this situation, leading to catastrophic consequences.
Hydropower contributes substantially to the country’s electricity supply. Eliminating this environmentally friendly and indigenous source from the national grid would result in prolonged power outages in urban and industrial areas. Consequently, reliance on costly imported fossil fuels would increase dramatically, rendering electricity unaffordable for the majority, hindering industrial operations, and obstructing economic development. Furthermore, the circular debt within the power sector would likely become unmanageable. - Agricultural Collapse and Food Insecurity. As a predominantly agrarian economy, Pakistan heavily depends on the Indus Basin Irrigation System, which is the largest in the world. This system relies on dams for storing snowmelt from the Himalayas and for regulating water flow during the Rabi (winter) and Kharif (summer) cropping seasons. Without dams: –
- a. No Rabi Crop. The winter sowing season would essentially cease to function, resulting in a lack of stored water for wheat cultivation, a staple food for over 220 million people.
- b. Precarious Kharif Crop. Agriculture would face risks based solely on monsoon rains. Insufficient rainfall would lead to drought and subsequent crop failure, while excessive rainfall could cause flooding, destroying fields before they are harvested.
- c. Economic Ruin. The collapse of agriculture, which contributes nearly 23% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs over 37% of the workforce, would lead to widespread unemployment, severe food shortages, and increased social unrest.
- 3. Unmitigated Flood Devastation. The flood disasters of 2010, 2011, and most recently in 2022 served as alarming indications of a future devoid of sufficient water storage capacity. Dams serve as critical mitigators, absorbing peak flood inflows and managing their release in a controlled manner. In the absence of dams, each monsoon surge would flow downstream unchecked, resulting in the destruction of villages, infrastructure, and extensive agricultural land with increasing frequency and severity. The human and economic costs associated with annual mega-floods would become unsustainable.
In summary, a Pakistan without dams would function as a failed state, caught in an endless cycle of famine and flood, lacking both energy and food security.
The Great Dam Debate: To Build or Not to Build?
- Given this dire hypothetical scenario, the construction of additional dams appears to be a logical solution. However, reality is considerably more complex, prompting an intense national discourse.
- The Case FOR Dam Construction (The “Pro-Dam” Argument): –
- a. Water Security. Pakistan is rapidly becoming a water-scarce nation, with per capita water availability declining below the threshold of water stress. New reservoirs, such as the proposed Diamer-Bhasha Dam, are crucial for storing water from glacial melt and monsoon rains, thereby ensuring year-round availability, particularly during dry periods.
- b. Clean Energy Generation. Hydropower represents a renewable and low-carbon energy source. It can be produced domestically, thus insulating the country from fluctuations in international oil and gas prices and alleviating the large import bills that exacerbate the national economy.
- c. Flood Mitigation. Increasing storage capacity constitutes the most effective engineering response to managing the flood-drought cycle. It would safeguard millions of individuals residing in flood-prone areas and save substantial financial resources on annual disaster relief and reconstruction efforts.
- d. Economic Catalyst. Major dam projects are capable of creating thousands of jobs during the construction phase and promoting economic activity in remote regions through enhanced infrastructure development.
- The Case AGAINST Dam Construction (The “Anti-Dam” Argument): –
- a. Exorbitant Cost and Financial Viability. Mega-dams rank among the most costly infrastructure projects globally. The Diamer-Bhasha Dam is projected to exceed $14 billion in expenses. Financing this endeavor would place a significant strain on national finances, divert funds from vital sectors such as health and education, and exacerbate Pakistan’s already substantial debt burden. Concerns regarding cost overruns and protracted payback periods are therefore warranted.
- b. Environmental and Ecological Impact. Dams fundamentally alter river ecosystems, disrupting sediment flow—which can lead to coastal erosion and reservoir silting—impacting fish migration and obliterating terrestrial habitats submerged by the reservoir. The consequent alterations in microclimates and the loss of biodiversity are often irreversible.
- c. Human Cost. The displacement and social disruption consequent to dam construction pose serious challenges. Reservoirs inundate extensive land areas, displacing communities, often those that are economically disadvantaged or indigenous, from their ancestral lands. The resultant social trauma, insufficient compensation, and failures in adequately rehabilitating affected populations reflect significant ethical concerns associated with large dam projects worldwide.
- d. Geopolitical Tensions. A significant portion of Pakistan’s rivers originates in India. Although the Indus Waters Treaty governs water rights, any attempts to modify the river system upstream—such as through the construction of large storage dams—could exacerbate tensions with neighboring India, transforming water into a potential geopolitical flashpoint.
- e. The Siltation Problem. Existing dams, such as Tarbela, are rapidly experiencing a loss of storage capacity due to siltation.
This multifaceted debate highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive examination of both the benefits and drawbacks of dam construction in Pakistan, underscoring the implications for the nation’s future.
- Critical Analysis and the Middle Path. The viability of dam construction is a complex issue that cannot be addressed with a simple affirmative or negative response; it requires a nuanced, evidence-based approach.
- a. The position advocating for a complete prohibition of dam construction is impractical. Given the significant threats posed by water scarcity and climate-induced flooding, some form of water storage is crucial for Pakistan’s survival.
- b. Conversely, the stance favoring only large-scale dams is equally misguided. Pursuing mega-projects without a comprehensive consideration of their financial, social, and environmental ramifications is unsustainable.
- c. The most viable path forward involves a multifaceted strategy: –
- (1) Prioritize Efficiency First. The most substantial source of new water is derived from reducing waste. Modernizing the antiquated canal system, promoting the use of drip and sprinkler irrigation in agriculture—which consumes over 90% of water resources—and addressing leaks in urban water infrastructure could result in water savings that exceed those of multiple new dams, all at a fraction of the cost.
- (2) Strategic Dam Construction. Dams should be constructed selectively based on rigorous feasibility studies that identify those projects offering the optimal balance of water storage, power generation, and flood control, while also minimizing social and environmental impacts. This approach should be complemented by meticulous planning and equitable treatment of affected communities.
- d. Embrace Alternative Solutions: –
- (1) Run-of-the-River Hydropower. These projects typically involve smaller reservoirs and entail reduced environmental impacts, although they provide limited water storage capacity.
- (2) Solar and Wind Energy. Pakistan possesses significant potential for solar energy development. Investing in a diversified portfolio of renewable energy sources can help alleviate the pressure on dams to meet the nation’s energy needs.
- (3) Water Pricing and Governance. It is critical to implement rational water pricing for agricultural and industrial use, as well as to strengthen institutional frameworks that manage water resources transparently.
- Conclusion. Envisioning Pakistan without its current dams presents a dire scenario, highlighting their essential role in the nation’s water management strategy. However, addressing future challenges cannot rely exclusively on past methodologies. The appropriate course of action is not to abandon dam construction, but rather to advance beyond the simplistic advocacy for mega-dams. The water security of Pakistan will depend on a pragmatic combination of strategic and responsible dam
construction, a significant transition toward improved water efficiency, and a diversified energy framework. This balanced approach is imperative for effectively navigating the complexities between a future characterized by water scarcity and one marked by environmental excesses.