- By: Prof. S. Shafiq ur Rehman
- Advisor, Quality Assurance Program, Higher Education Department, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
The Meteorological Department of Pakistan had already predicted the onset of monsoon 2025 in the last week of June, and above-average precipitation in 27 districts of north and central Punjab, 10 districts of south Punjab, 23 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and 13 districts of Balochistan. Intense rains and urban flooding were also in almost 10 major cities of the country alongside the risk of landslides in the hilly areas of Punjab, KP, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan. Above-normal intensity of the 2025 monsoon was attributed to the northward shift of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The season is expected to continue until mid-September.
The first spell of monsoon rainfall started as of June 26, 2025, in different parts of the country with heavy rains causing deaths, destruction, and displacement of affected people. Subsequent spells with heavy downpours, cloudbursts, lightning, GLOFs, landslides/debris-flows continued during the next 8 weeks. The most affected regions that suffered heavily in terms of deaths and injuries, complete or partial damage to houses and infrastructure comprised the hilly terrains of KP, Kashmir, and GB. In chronological order some of the notable tragic events took place in Goharabad village of Jhelum valley in Kashmir on July 9th, Gilgit and Ghizer districts of GB on July 12th , Babusar Top (KP) and district Chilas (GB) cloudburst & flash flood, on July 22nd , districts Buner and Bajaur (KP) cloudburst & flash flood, Aug. 15th , Dalori village, Swabi (KP) cloudburst, Aug. 18th 2025.
During the two months of devastation by August 25th 2025, the death toll across the country had reached 799, and injured 1080, out of which 479 deaths and 347 injuries were recorded in KP according to the official tally released the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). The second phase of floods entered Pakistan on August 26, when India released its floodwaters from overflowing dams and swollen rivers to the low-lying eastern border areas through Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas Rivers, besides the Chenab and Jhelum Rivers. By the end of August 2025, the total death toll has reached 849 that include 480 in KP, and a total of 1130 injured with 608 from Punjab and 355 from KP. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has also topped the list of damaged houses with 4,661 out of a total of 8991, including 910 houses completely demolished. Similarly, 5460 livestock perished in KP out of a total of 6139 animals across the country. In view of the released floodwaters by India earlier this week about 750,000 persons have been rescued to safety.
The flash and riverine floods caused by the above-normal monsoon rainfall in the two South Asian neighbor countries and related disasters during the summer of 2025 in Pakistan are neither isolated nor anomalous—they are part of a disturbing and intensifying climate trend that threatens the very sustainability of life, economy, and governance in the country have exposed the fragility of ecosystems and infrastructure, especially in KP, GB, and Balochistan. Glacial melt is accelerating, and the monsoon patterns are becoming increasingly intense due to global warming. Unless significant climate resilience is built urgently, the recurrence of these extreme events could make large parts of Pakistan, especially mountain and low-lying riverine zones, physically and economically uninhabitable in the coming decades.
With hundreds already dead or missing in 2025 and hundreds of thousands displaced, Pakistan is entering a humanitarian crisis loop with rise of rural to urban migration, Climate refugees from flood-prone and water-scarce regions will increase pressure on already overburdened cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Peshawar. The poor and marginalized will suffer most, deepening social inequality and instability.
Each flood season wipes out billions in public and private assets—roads, bridges, schools, homes, and crops. The agriculture sector, which employs over 35% of the workforce and contributes ~20% to GDP, is particularly at risk due to reduced productivity from flash floods and erratic rains. The rice and cotton crops already severely affected in the central and southern Punjab is likely to cause price hike and economic losses to the community. Water management systems (like dams, canals, barrages) are outdated or under strain. Pakistan’s economy, already fragile, is teetering under the dual burden of climate disasters and debt, reducing fiscal space for adaptation.
Pakistan’s disaster response and risk reduction capacities remain reactive rather than proactive. The country lacks a reliable and efficient early warning system and coordinated evacuation plans, poor land-use regulation, illegal construction in flood zones, and fragmented authority across federal, provincial, and district levels hampers response and recovery. This leads to repeated loss of life and property, eroding public trust in institutions.
Pakistan’s future stands at a critical juncture and if status quo persists recurring disasters could tip parts of the country into chronic crises. That is likely to result in rising debt, food insecurity, and migration could destabilize governance. Climate stress may feed extremism, border tensions, and regional insecurity.
Strategic reforms must be adopted such as massive investment in climate-resilient infrastructure (dams, drainage, urban zoning), adaptation-centered development planning (e.g., flood-resistant crops, afforestation), community-based early warning and preparedness systems, & international climate finance, technology transfer, and regional cooperation (e.g., glacier monitoring) could provide a lifeline.
Climate change is no longer an environmental issue for Pakistan—it is an existential crisis that cuts across development, security, and justice. The floods of 2025 must serve as a wake-up call. Without aggressive adaptation, climate-smart governance, and international solidarity, Pakistan risks facing a future marked by perpetual disaster, displacement, and decline. But with strategic foresight, investment, and leadership, Pakistan can still transform this crisis into an opportunity for green resilience and inclusive development.
The massive physical changes in river-bed topography caused by landslides, and debris flows, —as witnessed during the catastrophic summer events of 2025—have profound and growing implications for Pakistan’s major dams like Tarbela, Mangla, Dasu, and Diamer-Bhasha. These changes are measurable in millions of tons of sediment deposited in river channels every few years and will directly impact the structural, hydraulic, and functional life of these vital national assets.
On the one hand raising of the riverbed is caused by massive upstream sediment deposition that leads to reduced flood-carrying capacity, increased backwater levels, & risk of upstream floods. Similarly, sediment delta formation can push closer to dam inlets (as seen at Tarbela), and affects hydraulic performance and requires regular dredging or bypassing. Downstream deepening of the channel on the other hand triggers when sediment-starved water is released from dams scours the downstream bed. It exerts structural stress on bridges, embankments, and infrastructure, which in turn can lead to riverbank collapse, channel instability, and habitat loss.
Tarbela Dam, on the Indus River). has already lost ~40% of live storage capacity from silting of the lake since 1976, is susceptible to increased debris inflows from Kohistan and Swat catchment basins in post-GLOFs, landslides scenarios. Intake blockage risk and potential need for sediment sluicing upgrades or retrofitting with sediment bypass tunnels. Hence operational life of the dam may reduce further without strategic sediment management.
Mangla Dam, on the Jhelum River, faces more gradual sedimentation, but enhanced climate-induced hill slope erosion in Kashmir and Hazara will accelerate inflows. Sediment inflow may affect power generation turbines, especially during high-mudflow seasons. Ongoing raising of the dam height (already done once) is a short-term mitigation only.
The under construction Dasu Hydropower Project located in a geologically fragile zone between Kohistan and Chilas faces the high risk of upstream aggradation from frequent landslides, more so in post-2025 massive debris inflows. It requires real-time sediment load monitoring and adaptive sediment exclusion structures to avoid turbine damage and inlet clogging.
Similarly, the under construction Diamer-Bhasha Dam located in a sediment-rich seismic zone, is designed to trap sediment for ~100 years, but climate-induced sediment acceleration may halve that unless controlled. It may reduce sediment flow to Tarbela, initially seen as a benefit—but raises aggradation risk in the Bhasha reservoir itself, especially with GLOF-prone glaciers upstream. Risk of rapid delta progression and dead storage loss within decades.
Strategic Implications and Required Actions: Without aggressive sediment management, the operational lifespan of Pakistan’s existing and under-construction dams could shrink by 30–50%. Sediment deposition reduces live storage, directly impacting irrigation water availability, hydropower generation capacity, and flood control effectiveness. Besides, sediment and boulder inflows increase the abrasion risk on tunnels and turbines, and debris accumulation near intakes may necessitate frequent shutdowns or retrofitting of intake systems.
What must be done right away? A sediment crisis response by way of a National Sediment Management Strategy (NSMS) be developed by WAPDA, NDMA, and Ministry of Climate Change, with input from international hydrology experts. It should include sediment bypass systems in new dams (e.g., tunnels or sediment flushing), upstream watershed management (reforestation, slope stabilization), dredging and delta retreat engineering for Tarbela and Mangla, and continuous sediment load mapping and predictive modeling.
Regional Cooperation with India, Nepal, and China as they also influence upstream flows. A transboundary sediment and hydrology monitoring agreement would be a long-term asset for forecasting and joint management.
Conclusion: The colossal and frequent aggradation caused by landslides, GLOFs, and debris flows is quietly eroding the functional lifespan and safety of Pakistan’s critical dams and reservoirs infrastructure. The country is heading into a sediment crisis, and if left unaddressed, it may face declining water security, lower hydropower outputs, and increasing disaster risks over the next 10–20 years. Pakistan must now treat sediment management as seriously as dam design and climate policy—and act before its reservoirs turn into silt basins.
- First Published on LinkedIn on Aug 31, 2025